The crux with black swans is that you can —through experience and a keen alertness— feel them coming and prepare for them. The black swan characteristic is that you don’t have clue of what it’ll be like.
Add totally blown out-of-proportion equity markets —with several melt-ups (Tesla, Boeing, to name a few)— and you have the perfect storm when Corona came ashore.
I have done my very best to warn each and every one of my blog-buster members to get out before the shit would hit the fan. And some of you have asked me when I would go back in.
Well, I don’t know yet because this worldwide mess has a way to go. One indication is the never-before volatility — remember my VIX trade? The VIX went up from 19 to 85 —which again has never ever happened— and is a measure of extreme market risk. It kinda projects equity markets going down 75% from their highs. Just imagine if that should occur … 😱
In other words, beware, we have a long way down to go.